Hot Stove, Hot Takes – Part Three

free agents

Here we go again! Time to continue with our journey through Hot Stove season. With the GM meetings happening at the end of this week, you can bet that the dominoes will continue to fall as General Managers around the MLB continue to shape their rosters for the upcoming season. Having already tackled where the top position players and starting pitchers will wind up, we now move onto the top relief pitchers available.

kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel

Position: RHP Age: 31

2018 Stats: 62.1 IP • 2.74 ERA • 3.13 xFIP • 0.99 WHIP • 13.86 K/9 • 4.48 BB/9 • 42 SV • 1.5 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Boston Red Sox. Not only are they in a position where they could lose Kimbrel, but their set-up man, Joe Kelly, could also be pitching for a new team come Spring Training. Having to potentially lose both Kimbrel and Kelly, leaves the reigning World Series champions with no clear replacement for the upcoming season. One thought, in favour of allowing Kimbrel to leave via free agency, would be the allure of the draft pick compensation that the Red Sox would receive as they have already qualified Kimbrel.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. One of the more prevalent offseason storylines thus far has been that of the Phillies and their willingness to spend a “stupid” amount of money. In Kimbrel, the Phillies get a pitcher who has been one of the best closers in baseball since becoming the Braves everyday closer in 2011. In his eight seasons, Kimbrel has made the All-Star team seven times and garnered votes for the Cy Young five occasions. Over the past three seasons, he’s struck out 42.3% of batters faced, a stat that leads all MLB relievers, as well as featured an average fastball of 97.6 mph; good for third best amongst relievers over that same time. Although they could still find a closer via the trade market – I thought for sure they’d be the favourites to trade for Edwin Diaz – signing the veteran Kimbrel may be the Phillies smartest option as it allows them to use their farm system to fill other holes if need be.

Term: 5yrs/$75mil

familia

Jeurys Familia

Position: RHP Age: 29

2018 Stats: 72.0 IP • 3.13 ERA • 3.53 xFIP •1.22 WHIP • 10.38 K/9 • 3.50 BB/9 • 18 SV • 1.8 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Minnesota Twins. Despite a down year in 2018 that saw the Twins take a step backwards, and Paul Molitor lose his job, the outlook in Minneapolis heading into 2019 should be a positive one. With the Indians staring down a potential rebuild on the fly, the Twins could take advantage of an incredibly weak division and become a legitimate threat to takeover the Central. Even though they have more than a few holes to fill on their roster, the Twins can’t miss the opportunity that this offseason presents to add an impact arm to close out games. Sure, the duo of Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger performed admirably following the trade of Fernando Rodney, but the addition of a bonafide closer would allow both of them to return back to their set-up roles, a role they’re better suited for.

Who Will Sign Him: Atlanta Braves. Although their bullpen is not a major cause for concern – thanks to the duo of Arodys Vizcaino and A.J Minter – the Braves have been rumoured to be looking into some of the “bigger” names available on the free agent market. The addition of one of these “bigger” names would allow the Braves to move the aforementioned duo of Vizcaino and Minter into set-up roles, thus solidifying the back-end of their bullpen. Even though the Braves have been rumoured to have interest in Craig Kimbrel, whom was drafted and developed by them, the 31 year old closer’s price tag may be one that the Braves should avoid. It is not that the Braves can’t afford to sign Kimbrel, it is just that said money may be better used on adding a tier two closer like Familia; as well as another starter and outfielder. Aside from financial ones, another reason for the Braves to consider Familia, who came up with the Mets, are his past successes pitching in the NL East. However, one possible deterrent to signing Familia could be his history of injuries and concerns over his durability.

Term: 3yrs/$30mil

USP MLB: ALCS-TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT CLEVELAND INDIA S BBA USA OH

Andrew Miller

Position: LHP Age: 33

2018 Stats: 34.0 IP • 4 24 ERA • 3.68 xFIP • 1.38 WHIP • 11.91 K/9 • 4.24 BB/9 • 2 SV • 0.4 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Oakland A’s. Already having Blake Treinen in place as their closer, the Athletics could target a veteran like Miller or Zach Britton, both of whom are coming off “down” years, to become their eighth inning set-up man. The signing could be a win-win for both player and club, as it allows the pitcher to (hopefully) re-establish themself, while the team (hopefully) gets an elite bullpen arm at a potential discount. Miller, being the older of the two names mentioned, may be the better signing for the Athletics because if they do slip in the standings, they could offload Miller to a contender at the deadline – a pure Billy Beane move.

Who Will Sign Him: Boston Red Sox. As mentioned in the profile of Craig Kimbrel, the Red Sox are currently looking at having to either re-sign or replace both their set-up man and their closer. While there is still the possibility of a reunion between the Red Sox and both Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, the addition of Andrew Miller would fill two needs: a left handed reliever and a top tier set-up man. Hypothetically, if the Red Sox do re-sign Kimbrel and Kelly, as well as adding Miller, it would immediately give Boston one of, if not the best, back ends in the game. With strong bullpens being one of the major factors to a teams success for the past decade, the Red Sox would be wise to bolster theirs by adding one of the best left handed relievers available. One other thought in favour of adding Miller: already having one of the better starting rotations in the MLB, the Red Sox could protect leads and “shorten the game” by getting the ball from the starters to their bullpen as quick as possible.

Term: 3yrs/$30mil

britton yank

Zack Britton

Position: LHP Age: 30

2018 Stats: 40.2 IP • 3.10 ERA • 3.75 xFIP • 1.23 WHIP • 7.52 K/9 • 4.65 BB/9 • 7 SV • 0.1 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Chicago Cubs. Arguably the best relief pitcher in the MLB heading into 2017, Britton saw his career momentarily derailed by separate injuries to both his forearm and achillies tendon. These two injuries led to his 2017 season being effectively written off, and forced him to not make his 2018 debut until mid June; shortly before he was traded to the Yankees. Although he didn’t pitch like his usual dominant self in 2018, Britton’s past successes, 95 mph sinker from the left side, and best GB% amongst relievers, will definitely put him in demand. In fact, his struggles and past injury concerns could see more teams willing to sign him in the hopes that he regains his 2016 form at a discounted rate for their pocketbooks. Although there will be numerous teams interested in his services, you can bet that he will most likely look to sign with a contender. With no clear cut closer in the fold, the Cubs could pursue Britton to be their closer and hope to land him at a bargain price.

Who Will Sign Him: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have been linked to acquiring the left handed Britton for the past two seasons. Now they can get their man without having to part with any of their MLB players or prospects in order to do so. Even though their current closer, Kenley Jansen, is recovering from heart surgery and, barring any setbacks, he is expected to resume his ninth inning duties. That being said, by signing Britton, not only would the Dodgers have immediately strengthened their bullpen, but they will have also added some insurance at the closers role. This potential signing could be beneficial to both parties as the Dodgers could buy low on a former top closer in baseball, and Britton can look to re-establish himself as a top relief pitcher.

Term: 3yrs/$30mil

ottavino

Adam Ottavino

Position: RHP Age: 33

2018 Stats: 77.2 IP • 2.43 ERA • 3.13 xFIP • 0.99 WHIP • 12.98 K/9 • 4.17 BB/9 • 6 SV • 2.0 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Colorado Rockies. Last season, the Rockies went out and signed free agent relief pitchers, Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis, to strengthen their bullpen. Although the duo were expected to have a bit of a rough time adjusting to pitching in the thin air of Denver, no one could have predicted just how rough those adjustments would be. After a troubling start to the season, Davis managed to straighten his season out and wound up with a career high 43 saves. Shaw, on the other hand, was one of the statistically worst pitchers in the National League. Both, Shaw and Davis, are signed through 2020, and both of them will be looked at to rebound from their 2018 woes in order for the Rockies to return to the postseason for a second consecutive season. Given the issues with their bullpen last season – paired with knowing what they already have in Ottavino – re-signing the RHP should be the Rockies number one goal this offseason. Its not too often you know how a pitcher will pitch at Coors Field and, price tag aside, the Rockies might not find a better replacement.

Who Will Sign Him: Colorado Rockies. As mentioned above, the Rockies have some serious bullpen concerns, and they already know what to expect from Ottavino. Why try and replace a known with an unknown?

Term: 3yrs/$27mil

Best of the Rest:

Cody Allen • Age: 30 • 2018 WAR: 0.0 • Los Angeles Angels

Kelvin Herrera • Age: 29 • 2018 WAR: 0.4 • Los Angeles Dodgers

Joakim Soria • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.9 • Washington Nationals

Oliver Perez • Age: 37 • 2018 WAR: 1.1 • Houston Astros

Tony Sipp • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.9 • Minnesota Twins

Zach Duke • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR: 0.9 • Milwaukee Brewers

Brad Brach • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 0.7 • Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Kelly • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: 0.7 • Boston Red Sox

Sergio Romo • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR: 0.5 • Chicago White Sox

Jake Diekman • Age 32 • 2018 WAR: 0.5 • Chicago Cubs

Justin Wilson • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: 0.5 • Cincinnati Reds

Greg Holland • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 0.3 • Kansas City Royals

Part Four – Trade Market Talk – Coming Soon

– $

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Hot Stove, Hot Takes – Part Two

 

free agents

 

Having already hypothesized where the top tier position players would sign, we now turn our attention to making half-assed guesses… I mean, educated assertions to where the top Starters available will wind up.

 

corbin

Patrick Corbin

Position: LHP Age: 29

2018 Stats: 33 GS • 200.0 IP • 3.15. ERA • 2.61 xFIP • 1.05 WHIP • 11.07 K/9 • 2.16 BB/9 • 6.3 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. It’s no secret that the Phillies plan on throwing some serious cash around. It’s also no secret that they plan on upgrading their starting rotation. They have already been linked to the big names (Paxton, Kluber, and Carrasco) available on the trade market, but by signing one of the premier free agent arms instead, they could choose to trade their top prospects to fill other areas of need. With the likes of 2018 Cy Young nominee, Aaron Nola, and 2015 Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta, already in the fold, the Phillies wouldn’t need Corbin to be their figurative ace; a role he is better suited for. The trio of Nola, Corbin, and Arrieta immediately give the Phillies one of, if not the best, front end of the rotations in all of the MLB. Something that will come in handy when the calendar turns to October.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Yankees. Entering the offseason, the Yankees had one clear goal in mind: upgrading their starting rotation. Despite having already traded for LHP James Paxton, it should come as no surprise that the Yankees, Corbin’s childhood favourite team, have already been rumoured to be the front-runners to garner his services as well. Similar to the Phillies situation mentioned above, the Yankees don’t need Corbin to be their proverbial “ace.” However, seeing as how the starting point for a contract with him should be along the lines of the contract that Yu Darvish signed prior to last season – 6yrs/$126mil – the Yankees will be paying an ace price for a guy who is really more of a solid number two. With that being said, the Yankees, who seem to want to move on from the Sonny Gray experience, are still going to be in need of adding an arm to fill out their rotation. Why settle for starting the season with an unproven arm like Chance Adams or Jonathan Loaisiga as your number five, when you could sign Corbin, and enter the season with 38yr old, CC Sabathia, to anchor your rotation instead?

Term: 6yrs/$131mil

 

 

eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi

Position: RHP Age: 28

2018 Stats: 21 GS • 111.0 IP • 3.81 ERA • 3.67 xFIP • 1.13 WHIP • 8.19 K/9 • 1.62 BB/9 • 2.2 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Houston Astros. The Astros were already looking at having to possibly replace two starting pitchers as both, LHP Dallas Keuchel and RHP Charlie Morton, were slated to hit free agency. Then they got the news that another one of their starters, RHP Lance McCullers Jr., was going to miss the entire 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. Even though the Astros do have a few arms – RHP Brad Peacock, RHP Colin McHugh, RHP Josh James, and RHP Forrest Whitley – that could step into the rotation to begin the season, adding an impact veteran arm like Eovaldi would allow them to bring along their younger arms (James and Whitley) at a more suitable pace; as well as having a contingency plan if either of the veteran arms of Peacock or McHugh don’t pan out.

Who Will Sign Him: Boston Red Sox. Acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline, Eovaldi’s solid regular season performance was overshadowed by his now legendary one in October. Eovaldi pitched 22.1 innings over six games in the Playoffs including two starts, and a relief appearance for the ages. You could argue that he was the odds on favourite to be the World Series MVP until Steve Pearce did his best Reggie Jackson impression. Post season success aside, what makes a reunion with Eovaldi truly appealing to the Red Sox is that he gives them another right handed option – along with Rick Porcello – to offset their lefty heavy rotation. With few holes to fill this offseason, I expect the Red Sox to be more than willing to spend in order to upgrade both their rotation and bullpen.

Term: 5yrs/$75mil

 

Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel

Position: LHP Age: 30

2018 Stats: 34 GS • 204.2 IP • 3.74 ERA • 3.84 xFIP • 1.31 WHIP • 6.73 K/9 • 2.55 BB/9 • 3.6 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Cincinnati Reds. Despite being perennial cellar dwellers for the past number of seasons, the Reds have been one of the more talked about teams as far as trading for or signing a top tier starting pitcher. Rumoured to have inquired about the Blue Jays young righty, Marcus Stroman, it appears that the Reds are targeting pitchers capable of inducing a high rate of ground balls; which isn’t surprising when you consider that they play in a hitter friendly ballpark (Great American Ballpark). By targeting a free agent like Keuchel, it allows the Reds to refrain from having to part with some of their highly touted prospects; which in turn lets Cincinnati use them as trade bait for other needs. Speculation and rumours aside, one thought to keep in mind is that the Reds have historically shied away from offering lucrative contracts to high profile free agents.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. Similar to the position the Yankees are in, the Phillies would like to add another arm but don’t need them to be their ace. Enter Keuchel. Despite his lack of velocity and low strikeout numbers, his pinpoint control, and ability to keep the ball in the yard due to a high ground ball%, make him a logical fit for a team that plays their home games in a sin bin like Citizens Bank. That being said, with Keuchel on the wish list of numerous other teams, the Phillies might not want to get in a bidding war for the services of Keuchel, and instead could look to acquire a top tier pitcher via trade.

Term: 4yrs/$80mil

 

happ

J.A Happ

Position: LHP Age: 36

2018 Stats: 31 GS • 177.2 IP • 3.65 ERA • 3.88 xFIP • 1.13 WHIP • 9.78 K/9 • 2.58 BB/9 • 3.2 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Toronto Blue Jays. This one is fairly straight forward; the Blue Jays need to add a veteran arm or two to help ease the workload on their young, and oft-injured starters. Having already had two stints North of the border in his career, Happ is no stranger to the organization, and that’s with taking into account the new coaching regime that is in place; although long time Pitching Coach, Pete Walker, does remain. Although a reunion between the two would make sense, at least on paper, for both parties, Happ’s potential price tag, and desire to win now, could be the reason that this doesn’t pan out.

Who Will Sign Him: Los Angeles Angels. As stated in the previous article, the Angels should be doing everything in their power to surround Mike Trout with as much talent as possible. Seeing as how their biggest need, which there are numerous, is the starting rotation, targeting one or two of the top arms available should be priority number one for this offseason. Although there are “better” arms and “bigger” names available, the 36 yr old Happ might offer the best bang for the buck on the market. Since his resurgence with the Pirates in 2015, Happ has quietly been one of the more consistent starters during that time. The market for Happ should begin to heat up once the bigger names have signed, as the teams that missed out on their top targets begin to look at their Plan B’s. The Angels would be smart to not play the waiting game or they may risk getting in a bidding war and having to overpay.

Term: 2yrs/$32mil

 

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Charlie Morton

Position: RHP Age: 35

2018 Stats: 30 GS •167.0 IP • 3.13 ERA • 3.42 xFIP • 1.16 WHIP • 10.83 K/9 • 3.45 BB/9 • 3.1 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Oakland A’s.

Who Will Sign Him: Washington Nationals. Despite looking like they were about to jump start a rebuild at last season’s Trade Deadline, not to mention potentially losing Bryce Harper any day now, the Nationals enter the offseason rumoured to be looking to add pieces. It’s hard to argue against the Nationals still believing that they have a window to contend as they still have a pretty stacked rotation and roster, but it is hard to see them shelling out big bucks for long term deals because a rebuild could take place at a moments notice. Morton, despite being 35, has been one of the top starters for the past few seasons in regards to strikeout numbers (364 K’s in 313.2 innings over the past two seasons) and average fastball velocity (95.4mph). Signing Morton would give the Nationals a solid mid rotation starter to pitch behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, while not having to commit to a lucrative multi-year deal. It also allows the Nationals, if they plan on contending, to spend money elsewhere on other needs, as well as give them a potential trade piece if they are forced to sell off.

Term: 2yrs/$28mil

 

Best of the Rest:

Lance Lynn • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 2.9 • Tampa Bay Rays

Anibal Sanchez • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 2.4 • San Diego Padres

Gio Gonzalez • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Oakland A’s

Trevor Cahill • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Toronto Blue Jays

Derek Holland • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Texas Rangers

Clay Buchholz • Age: 34 • 2018 WAR: 1.9 • Arizona Diamondbacks

Wade Miley • Age: 32 • WAR: 1.5 • Milwaukee Brewers

Matt Harvey • Age 30 • 2018 WAR: 1.4 • Cincinnati Reds

Jeremy Hellickson • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.2 • Chicago White Sox

Garrett Richards • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.0 • Baltimore Orioles

Tyson Ross • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.0 • Cincinnati Reds

 

Will Remain Unsigned Until Spring Training:

 

Brett Anderson • Age 31 • 2018 WAR: 0.9

James Shields • Age: 37 • 2018 WAR: 0.8

Jason Hammel • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR 0.8

Edwin Jackson • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.7

Marco Estrada • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.5

Francisco Liriano • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.3

Doug Fister • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.3

Bartolo Colon • Age: 46 • 2018 WAR: 0.2

Yovani Gallardo • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 0.1

Jaime Garcia • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR:0.0

Martin Perez • Age: 28 • 2018 WAR: -0.2

Drew Pomeranz • Age: 30 • 2018 WAR: -0.3

Miguel Gonzalez • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: -0.3

Chris Tillman • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: -0.4

Ervin Santana • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR: -0.5

Nate Karns • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: N/A

 

Part Three – Top Free Agent Relief Pitchers Available – Coming Soon

– $

Hot Stove, Hot Takes – Part One

free agents

With America set to sit down around the table, and give thanks for all they hold near and dear, the rest of the world eagerly anticipates a trifecta of NFL games and taking advantage of Black Friday deals. For me though, what I look forward to is not the obligatory airing of “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles,” although, I am a sucker for a John Candy film or the 75% off of a 70″ flat screen, but rather the ramping up of the MLB offseason. Known to those who speak baseball as the “hot stove,” the MLB offseason is a whirlwind ride of rumours, rumblings and constant refreshing of the Twittersphere, that leaves fans of every club eager to find out who their team is “in on.”

Even though the MLB’s GM Winter Meetings, the “unofficial” start of Hot Stove season, aren’t set to take place for another few weeks in Las Vegas, the Stove is already beginning to show signs of warming up. So far, outside of various signings to fill minor league rosters, we have seen a few free agents ink new deals, most notably being World Series MVP, Steve Pearce re-signing in Boston, and veteran backstop, Kurt Suzuki, finding a new home in Atlanta for the next two years. The trade market has also begun to heat up with the Yankees taking advantage of a sell off in Seattle and landing one of the bigger names available on the market, LHP James Paxton, although the price to pay was a steep one with Seattle receiving a package of prospects headlined by New York’s number one, LHP Justus Sheffield. This wasn’t the first, nor will it be the last trade of note to come out of the Pacific Northwest, as Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto, a favourite of the Hot Stove Hounds, has also recently swapped starting catcher, Mike Zunino and OF Guillermo Heredia with the Rays, for former Mariner great and notorious base thief, Mallex Smith. But enough about what HAS happened, let’s now look ahead to what COULD happen.

Free Agent Predictions

This offseason is shaping up to be one of if not the biggest and most exciting in MLB history with two of the games biggest stars (OF Bryce Harper and SS/3B Manny Machado) both hitting the open market, not to mention a former MVP (3B Josh Donaldson), a former Cy Young recipient (LHP Dallas Kuechel) and a closer with over 300 saves (RHP Craig Kimbrel) also available to the highest bidder. Why don’t we begin with some predictions on where the above, as well as some of the other “big names,” will wind up….

Top Position Players Available

machado

Manny Machado

Position: SS/3B • Age: 26

2018 Stats: 709 PA • .297 BA • .367 OBP • .905 OPS • 37 HR • 107 RBI • 5.7 WAR • 141 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Los Angeles Angels. My thinking here is that the Angels front office should want to bring in some much needed help and support for current front-runner to the claim of GOAT, Mike Trout. The main deterrent here will not be a financial one, but a logistical one. Mr. Machado, though a borderline elite defender at the hot corner, now fancies himself a SS, the position he was drafted as and played at last season. The problem here is not only is Manny a surprisingly sub-par defender at short, but his position of choice is currently filled by the best in the game, Mr. Andrelton Simmons. Imagine though, for a second, if Machado decided to go back to 3B. Just imagine how filthy defensively that left side of the infield would be.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. As much gossip and chatter as the rumour mill churns out during Hot Stove season, what still tends to happen is along the lines of the age old cliche: “where there is smoke, there is fire.” Meaning that, if you hear that so and so is linked to a team, and you read that they’re linked to a team, it most likely means that they’ll wind up with said team. Last week, Phillies owner John Middleton told USA TODAY Sports “We’re going into this expecting to spend money, and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.” It’s hard not to read between the lines on that statement. The Phillies will be linked to, and most likely wind up signing two or three of the marquee free agents available. With the lack of development from former first round pick, SS JP Crawford, and the inconsistency of 3B Maikel Franco, you can bet that Machado will be the top name on the Phillies wish list. Although, you have to wonder how much the blue collared fans in Philadelphia will appreciate the hustle and antics of Machado.

Term: 10yrs/$350 million

Harper

Bryce Harper

Position: OF Age: 26

2018 Stats: 695 PA • .249 BA • .393 OBP • .889 OPS • 34 HR • 100 RBI • 3.5 WAR • 135 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: New York Mets. Realistically, any team in need of or desiring an impact, middle of the order type bat, and can afford to shell out the biggest free agent contract to date, should be interested. But, given their inability to consistently produce offensively and their willingness to pursue top tier talent, it would be hard not to see the Mets make sense as a suitor for Harper. Not only would Harper immediately become the face of the franchise that just lost their heart and soul with the retirement of David Wright, but he would also get to play in the biggest baseball market there is; even if that means his home games are in Queens and not the Bronx.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. As mentioned above in regards to Manny Machado, the Phillies ownership has already outright said that they are going to spend “stupid” amounts of money this offseason. Which most likely means that Harper will be near, if not at, the top of their “wish list.” As ridiculous as it seems that a team could spend nearly a BILLION dollars on TWO players, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Phillies wind up with both Harper and Machado. One thing to keep in the back of your mind though is that New Jersey native and avid Philadelphia sports fan, Mike Trout, could potentially hit the open market in the next two years. Could the Philles hold off on signing Harper, and play the wait and see game with Trout?

Term: 15yrs/$450 million

Pollock-e1517933211574

A.J Pollock

Position: CF Age: 31

2018 Stats: 460 PA • .257 BA • .316 OBP • .800 OPS • 21 HR • 65 RBI • 2.5 WAR • 110 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: San Francisco Giants. The Giants will be an interesting team to keep an eye on during the course of Hot Stove season. Despite four lackluster seasons since their last World Series appearance and title, and strapped with an aging core of players, nobody really knows what to expect when it comes to San Fran. Newly hired, Farhan Zaidi, left the rival Dodgers to become the President of Baseball Operations for the Giants. What that means is that all decisions regarding trades and signings will go directly through him. What Zaidi decides to do as far as retooling the roster or rebuilding it from the ground up, will ultimately impact if the Giants are a viable option for Pollock. If they go the retool route then it’s hard to find a better and more realistic option than Pollock as he fits pretty much every need that the Giants have in the OF. However, if Zaidi decides to sell off his veterans and begin an overhaul of his roster, than a veteran OF (Michael Brantley, Adam Jones) that can be flipped at the deadline for a piece or two will be a more realistic signing.

Who Will Sign Him: Atlanta Braves. Though being one of the few “attractive” outfield options available on the free agent market, Pollock’s age and durability concerns – he hasn’t played more than 113 games since 2015 – will see him take a considerable backseat to the likes of Harper as far as term and value go. That being said, Pollock’s abilities with both his glove and bat make him the second best OF option available. With the Braves set to move on from RF Nick Markakis, and Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ender Inciarte already in place, the allure of adding a solid defensive fielder, as well as a top of the order bat, might make this a perfect fit for both club and player.

Term: 4yrs/$60mil

donno

Josh Donaldson

Position: 3B Age: 33

2018 Stats: 219 PA • .246 BA • . OBP • .889 OPS • 8 HR • 30 RBI • 1.3 WAR • 117 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Anaheim Angels. Maybe I am biased by my man crushes on both Donaldson AND Mike Trout, but my thinking here is once again influenced by the Angels need to surround Trout with some form of offensive help, or risk having him decide to take his talents elsewhere once his contract expires. Sure, the Angels may be weary about signing a former MVP who is over 30 (see: Pujols, Albert), but the glaring need they have for BOTH an everyday 3B, as well as an “impact bat” may be one that causes them to overlook their past misfortunes with former MVP’s over 30 (see: Hamilton, Josh). Couple that with Donaldson being linked to rumours of a one year deal in the $20 million range, and this may be too much of a bargain for the Angels to pass up.

Who Will Sign Him: St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been linked to the former AL MVP pretty much since the Blue Jays were eliminated by the Indians in the 2016 ALCS. Despite offering up the likes of RHP Jack Flaherty in exchange for Donaldson following the 2017 campaign, the Cardinals were rebuffed by the Blue Jays; a move that the latter would come to regret as Donaldson was sold for .10 on the dollar after missing the majority of the season in Toronto. Blue Jay bitterness aside, the Cardinals are now poised to finally wind up with their man, and it’ll come at no cost besides cash. Signing Donaldson would allow Matt Carpenter to slide back to 1B, where he is a better fit, and also allow the Cardinals to deal Jose Martinez, who’s all bat/no glove approach is better suited for an AL DH spot, for some help at other roster needs.

Term: 1yr/$20mil

moose

Mike Moustakas

Position: 3B Age: 30

2018 Stats: 635 PA • .251 BA • .315 OBP • .774 OPS • 28 HR • 95 RBI • 2.4 WAR • 105 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Kansas City Royals. After an October run to the NLCS with the Brewers, the man known as “Moose,” hits the market for the second time in as many years. Unlike last year, where rumours of a 5yr/$85mil deal were floated around before an eventual “freeze” in the Free Agent market saw numerous “big names” not sign until February, there seems to be a better understanding of how the market for Moose might shape up. Despite prodigal power at the plate, his low on-base numbers make him a less than attractive option for GM’s who value modern stats over the more traditional ones. Still, there will be a market for a player who can play an above average 3B, while offering 30/90 potential. I anticipate a team that is in the midst of a rebuild, and can look to flip him at the deadline, will be the one most likely to come to terms with the big 3B. Seeing as how one of the teams that fits this bill is the team that drafted him in the first place – the Royals – a reunion between the two might be the most natural of fits.

Who Will Sign Him: Pittsburgh Pirates. Even though they have already come to terms with SS/3B Jung-Ho Kang, the Pirates may look to roll with someone who hasn’t sat out the majority of the past two seasons. One of the other things that makes the Moose a fit in the Steel City is that he gives them a middle of the order bat that can make them challenge for the NL Central right away, or they can move him at the deadline to a contender if and when the Pirates are out of contention.

Term: 3yrs/$24mil.

Gonzalez

Marwin Gonzalez

Position: Utility Age: 29

2018 Stats: 552 PA • .247 BA • .324 OBP • .733 OPS • 16 HR • 68 RBI • 1.6 WAR • 104wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Colorado Rockies. It goes without saying that any team that realistically views themselves as more “Contender” than “Pretender” could benefit from the addition of a versatile player like the man known as “Swiss G.” Capable of playing all four infield positions as well as LF, Gonzalez could give the Rockies immediate value as a potential everyday replacement for LF Carlos Gonzalez or 2B D.J LeMehieu; not to mention as an option to give 3B Nolan Arenado and SS Trevor Story some needed days off.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Yankees. As mentioned above, Gonzalez will be most attractive for a team with aspirations of contending from day one. Who fits that mold better than the Bronx Bombers? The Yankees are already entering the season needing to replace SS Didi Gregorious, whom will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery, and the most logical fit for that role is 2B/SS Gleybar Torres, who was their everyday 2B last season. If Torres does indeed move over to SS, Gonzalez could slot in immediately as their Opening Day 2B. However, by adding someone with the versatility of Gonzalez, it could also see the Yankees play him occasionally at 1B or LF, and go and add one of the veteran 2B options available; such as: Daniel Murphy, Jed Lowrie, D.J LeMehieu, Brian Dozier or Jed Lowrie.

Term: 3yrs/$36mil

yasmani-grandal

Yasmani Grandal

Position: C Age: 30

2018 Stats: 518 PA • .241 BA • .349 OBP • .815 OPS • 24 HR • 68 RBI • 3.6 WAR • 125 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Houston Astros. The Astros have already decided to part ways with veteran, Brian McCann, and are set to head into the season with a tandem of Max Stassi and Chris Herremann. Though they have been one of the teams most linked with acquiring the Marlins, J.T Realmuto, in order to do so, the Astros would have to part with one or more of their top prospects. Even though they are an early favourite to head to the World Series, and a trade for Realmuto would easily put them over the top, the cost to do so might be one that is too high for GM Jeff Luhnow’s liking. Enter, Yasmani Grandal. Sure, his postseason play especially on the defensive side left A LOT to be desired, but there is no denying that his offensive prowess more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies. The switch-hitting, Grandal, would be an immediate upgrade over their current options, and would also allow them to keep their top prospects which they could use on their roster or to fill any other holes that may need filling.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Mets. There is no denying that Travis d’Arnaud is not an everyday MLB catcher. It is not because of his bat and offense, although that has dropped off significantly since 2015, but it is more to do with his inability to stay healthy. The soon to be 30 year old, has never played in more than 112 games at the MLB level, and at this point in his career, may be better suited as a back-up option. Outside of d’Arnaud, the Mets have Kevin Plawecki, but he too is starting to look more and more like a back-up. On the farm, the Mets have 24 year old, Tomas Nido, but his glove first approach and lack of bat might also make him a better back-up candidate at the MLB level. The Mets do have the pieces to pursue a catching option on the trade market like the Indians, Yan Gomes, or even possibly, J.T Realmuto, but the latter would cost them more than they are likely willing to part with. Signing one of the better free agents available -either Grandal or Wilson Ramos – could be the Mets best route to filling both a hole in their lineup, as well as adding a much needed offensive threat.

Term: 5yrs/$75mil

Part Two – Top Pitching Free Agents available – coming soon.

– $

Spare Change – Week One Reflections and More

opening day

 

 

What We Loved

  • Maddy Bumgarner’s Opening Day performance – 11k 2 HR
  • Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff position. The big LF is making Joe Maddon look like an even bigger genius with his torrid start out of the one hole.
  • Stephen Piscotty’s perilous trip around the bases. The Cardinals RF got hit by the ball 3x during the same journey. At least he was rewarded with a spot on Kimmel.
  • The absurd power throughout the Orioles lineup – Is JJ Hardy the weak spot? He did hit 30 in 2011
  • Unintentional comedy of the picture of 6’7 Aaron Judge and 5’8 Ronald Torryes
  • Bryce Harper on opening day… 5th HR in as many Opening Day’s
  • Not to be outdone, Mike Trout hit his 3rd HR on Opening Day
  • Albert Almora Jr. in CF – http://atmlb.com/2p4Hybi – http://atmlb.com/2owiSL1
  • Greg Holland closing out games. Former All Star has looked good upon his return from Tommy John.
  • Manny Machado’s glove work. Not only (arguably) the best 3B in the AL but also might be the best in the entire business.
  • The ludicrous power of Joey Gallo. The Rangers 1B caused a glitch in stat cast.
  • Fans turning Cueto into a horse via photoshop – http://www.thescore.com/news/1272381
  • The entire toolkit of Francisco Lindor. Add a late game grand slam to take the lead to his already impressive resume.
  • Eric Thames going yard in the show for the first time since 2012.
  • Jameson Taillon and Chris Sale lock horns at Fenway.
  • Bartolo’s return to Citi. Serious goosebumps – http://www.thescore.com/news/1272906
  • Josh Donaldson’s Barry Bonds earring. The Dangly cross just drips with swag from the late 80s and early 90s.
  • Manny Margot’s MLB debut. Padres top prospect hit back to back ding dongs in his first two MLB AB’s.
  • Yadier Molina’s chest protector. No way there isn’t something sprayed on that thing.
  • Jumbo Diaz jogging in from the pen. I’ll eat my hat if he is actually the 278 lbs that he is listed at.
  • Andrelton Simmons ridiculous tag – http://on.si.com/2pq8SQz.
  • The D-Backs red hot start. Last year’s bigger disappointments are already looking better than they did in 2016.

What Caused Us to Cringe

  • Masahiro Tanaka on opening day. The Yankees ace gave up a career high 7 earned in just 2.2 innings.
  • Tanaka’s UCL. The 28 year old is still pitching with a partially torn UCL which could possibly snap at any moment.
  • Waino pulling a 50 Cent but does it to allegedly protect Yadi. The Cardinals righty told reporters that he uncorked the egregiously wild pitch because he noticed that his catcher was set up for a curveball instead of the fastball that Wainwright was throwing. Commendable and all, but still ugly as hell.
  • Brett Cecil’s introduction to Cardinals fans. The former Blue Jay serves up a moonshot to Kyle Schwarber to give the Cubs the lead and the eventual game.
  • They aren’t who we thought they were. The Royals bullpen getting shelled for 12 runs through 2 games
  • Clayton Kershaw making more than the entire Padres roster. How is AJ Preller still employed?
  • Pretty much everything that the Blue Jays have done so far.
  • Jason Grilli at Camden Yards – The Grilled Cheese blows his 2nd consecutive save on the Orioles turf.
  • Josh Donaldson’s calves – why do I get the feeling that this could be a theme all season long?
  • Casey Lawrence’s introduction to Blue Jays fan (for further reading see below).
  • Walking in the winning run with the bases loaded and 2 outs. Seriously though, why not throw it right down the cock instead of trying to finesse it in there?

 

The (New) Golden Age of Shortstops 

As baseball fans, we are currently being treated to the best crop of talented, young SS since Jeter, ARod, Alex S Gonzalez, Edgar Renteria and Rey Ordonez were posing shirtless on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

shirtless-ss_orig.jpg

What makes that cover even more ridiculous is that future All Star and AL MVP Miguel Tejada wasn’t even invited; neither was Boston folk hero NOMAH! At the time of posting this, the likes of Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Addy Russell, Dansby Swanson, Trevor Story, Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, Aldames Diaz, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte and Orlando Arcia are all 25 or younger. And that’s not even including the top SS prospects that are still in the minors like Gleybar Torres, Ahmed Rosario, Brendan Rogers, JP Crawford, Nick Gordon, Willy Adames, Kevin Maitan, Franklin Barretto, Jorge Mateo or Kevin Newman. This list also does not include Manny Machado who just turned himself into (arguably) the best 3B in the game. Nor does it include other SS who have changed positions to accommodate their teams needs a la Alex Bregman.

Besides the abundance of young and upcoming SS, we are also still witnessing the play of exceptional talent from those who are 30 and under such as Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Crawford, Jose Iglesias and Andrelton Simmons; Simmons alone being a treat himself and might just be the best defensive SS to ever play the game. I say that with full respect, love and admiration for the Wizard of Oz (Ozzie Smith). Furthermore, Troy Tulowitzki, who has just been the best SS for the past decade, is entering the latter half of his SS career, and although his bat doesn’t seem to be what it used to be, his glove alone is worth the price of admission.

Not only are we experiencing an increase in talent alone, but also one in the power department. In that shirtless shortstop year of 1997, only three shortstops hit 20 or more homers (Nomar, Arod, and Jay Bell), whereas last year ELEVEN different shortstops (not counting Machado) hit 20 or more, including Didi Gregorious and Freddy Galvis! Enjoy it while it lasts. It’s not everyday that you are treated to a renaissance like this.

 

Games Without G-Ma

I honestly thought that losing Eddy to the Indians would be the biggest loss that I suffered this off season. Little did I know that it would barely be a dent in comparison to losing my grandmother. My grandmother was, and still is, the biggest Blue Jays fan that I have ever known. And I am not saying that because she listened or watched each and every game. I am saying that because like myself, she lived and breathed everything Blue Jays. Even the teams that I could barely talk myself into (I’m looking at you Ty Taubenheim, Terry Adams, and Doug Creek) she would tune in as if it was the hey days of the 80’s or early 90’s. She knew all of the players, coaches, trainers and prospects. She loved the scrappy underdogs like Johnny Mac and Craig Grebeck, and hated showboats or selfish players. Not a phone call between us went by without at least a five minute breakdown of the weeks past games, impromptu scouting reports or prospect profiles. I can’t tell you how many times I tried to talk her into such and such prospect or insert recent addition only to have her rebuff me with a “Ill believe it when I see it” attitude.

Like her favourite coach (Cito Gaston) she was overly protective of her veteran players and would fight with me tooth and nail if I tried to side with any kind of youth movement; especially when it came to her favourite, Jose Bautista. Of all the players whom she claimed as “favourites” over the years (Stieb, Key, Borders, Gruber, Carter, Molitor Delgado, Wells, Halladay), I am certain that Joey Bats was her favourite; she was even cremated with his shersey.

Although she passed away after Christmas, I am starting to feel her loss more now than I did then and that’s because it was during the baseball season that we bonded the most. I can’t tell you how much I wish I had just one more conversation with her about the Blue Jays; even if it was just over the phone for five minutes like we used to. Despite my heart feeling like a million pounds from sadness, I take solace in two things:

  1. Knowing that she got to watch the Blue Jays make the playoffs not only once more, but twice.
  2. Remembering her calling our house after midnight in 1992 when they won their first World Series. I can still remember hearing her gravely voice choking back tears of joy and excitement because her boys had finally done it.

It’s moments like that that will never die and are what will get me through this difficult season ahead. Rest in peace G-Ma, I know you’re up there somewhere cursing this 1-5 start like the rest of us. Hope you enjoy the Home Opener tonight.

 

– $

2017 MLB Season Preview – National League East

dansby-swanson

 

Atlanta Braves

2016 Record: 68-93 • 5th NL East

O/U on Wins: 71.5 • Over

Moving In: P Bartolo Colon • P R.A Dickey • UT Sean Rodriguez • 2B Brandon Phillips • P Jaime Garcia • C Tuffy Gosewich

Moving Out: C AJ Pierzynski

Key Player(s) in 2017: OF Ender Inciarte. Acquired in the heist of Dansby Swanson. Hit .291/.732/3/29/16 SB/3.8 WAR in 522 AB in 2016 and was rewarded by the Braves with a 5yr/$30.5 mil contract in the offseason. Despite only entering his 4th MLB season, the rebuilding Braves will look to Inciarte to be a bridge between their veteran players and their influx of youthful talent. Could also be a contender for breakout candidate.

Potential Breakout: SS Dansby Swanson. A full year of LT. Dans will be a treat for not only Braves fans but for all baseball fans. Definition of what scouts refer to as the “good face.” Starting SS on both the Braves, as well as the Kris Bryant All Stars (Overly Handsome MLB’ers). Swanson made his debut in August and put the rest of the baseball world on notice. In just 122 AB, he hit .302/.803/3/17 and added 3 steals. Although the expectations might be through the roof, the Braves will need to be patient with their stud SS if he does stumble out of the gate. Swanson isn’t going to hit for a high power numbers but his quick hands and bat speed should result in a relatively high average (.270-.290) and produce somewhere in the neighbourhood of 15 HR on an annual basis.

Top Prospect: Ozzie Albies • Age: 2B/SS • MLB ETA: 2017

First Round Draft Miss: P Sean Gilmartin (28) over 2B Joe Panik (29) in 2011

Fantasy Stud: 1B Freddie Freeman • 2016 Stats: .302/.968/34/91/6.5 WAR in 589 AB

Money’s Man Crush: Dansby Swanson #swoon. Definite contender to wrestle the title of “Most Handsome Player in Baseball,” away from the likes of Kris Bryant and Kevin Kiermaier.

2017 Prediction: 3rd NL East

 

yelich

 

Miami Marlins

2016 Record: 79-82 • 3rd NL East

O/U on Wins: 77.5 • Under

Moving In: P Edison Volquez • P Brad Ziegler • P Junichi Tazawa • P Jeff Locke • C AJ Ellis • P Javy Guerra • P Dan Straily

Moving Out: P Mike Dunn • P Andrew Cashner • P Fernando Rodney • C Jeff Mathis • IF Chris Johnson • OF Jeff Francoeur

Key Player(s) in 2017: OF Giancarlo Stanton. Putting Gio here seems to be a no brain decision. The dude is a perennial All Star with 40 HR power who ever garners MVP votes. That being said, the main reason he is here is because we, and the fish, are expecting a big bounce back season from the man formerly known as Mike. Although not known to hit for a high average, his .240 season in 2016 was the lowest of his career. Although his drop-off could be attributed to battling through injuries and not playing at 100%. His 27 HR/74 RBI through 413 AB barely topped his output from 2015 when he managed 279 AB. With the Marlins hoping to compete with the likes of the Nationals, Mets and even the upstart Braves, Stanton will be counted on to regain his form and help lead the Marlins in the search of October baseball.

Potential Breakout: P Adam Conley. Conley had a respectable season in his first full year as a pro. Made 25 starts, went 8-6/3.85/1.40/124 in 133 innings. On the negative side, he did also surrender 8.4 H/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Conley will have to work on improving both his command and location in order to correct those numbers and take the next step. With the loss of Jose Fernandez in a boating accident last September, the Marlins suffered an irreplaceable loss both on the field and in the clubhouse. While no one is expecting Conley to fill that void, a solid year from the 3rd year pro could help ease that loss and enhance the Marlins chances for baseball in October.

Top Prospect:  P Braxton Garrett • Age: 19 • MLB ETA: 2019

First Round Draft Miss: P Chad James (18th) over Shelby Miller (19) in 2009

Fantasy Stud: OF Christian Yelich  • 2016 Stats: .298/.859/21/98/5.3 WAR in 578 AB

Money’s Man Crush: As much as I love Gio and Yelich, the late Jose Fernandez was my boy. It still doesn’t seem real that he’s gone. The kid had absolutely electric stuff to go with an equally electric smile and personality. The bsseball world lost a true gem way too soon. RIP.

2017 Prediction: 4th NL East

 

MLB: World Series-Kansas City Royals at New York Mets

 

New York Mets

2016 Record: 87-75 •2nd NL East

O/U on Wins: 89.5 • Under

Moving In: 

Moving Out: P Bartolo Colon

Key Player(s) in 2017: P Matt Harvey. The man they call the Dark Knight broke out in 2013 with an All Star appearance and 4th place in the NL Cy Young race. However he missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery, but returned in 2015 to help lead the Mets to the NL pennent. In 2016, the Dark Knight struggled in before being shut down with surgery to repair Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Before being shutdown, Harvey had limped through 17 starts to a 4-10/4.86/1.49/76 in 92.2 innings. One has to believe that his injury was partially, if not completely, responsible for his lackluster campaign. The Mets will need Harvey to return to his 2015 version if they intend on besting the Nationals for top spot in the NL East. Besides that, a return to form for Harvey would cement the Mets as having the best rotation in baseball.

Potential Breakout: OF Michael Conforto. Begin the 2016 season with a strong debut but hit a wall and was sent back to the minors. The demotion was more of a move to allow him to continue to play everyday and not sit on the bench at the MLB level. Before being sent down, Conforto had hit .220/.725/12/42/.4 WAR in 304 AB. I know that those stats don’t necessarily jump out at you but they do give an indication that he can perform at the big league level. Despite the fact that the Mets were unable to move either one of Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce during the offseason, Conforto could easily play himself into a starting role with a strong showing in spring.

Top Prospect: SS Amed Rosario • Age: 21 • MLB ETA: 2017

First Round Draft Miss: P Eddie Kunz (42nd) over 3B Josh Donaldson (48) in 2007

Fantasy Stud: OF Yoenis Cespedes • 2016 Stats: .280/.884/31/86/2.9 WAR in 479 AB

Money’s Man Crush: That startinf rotarion though. Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, and Wheeler. Barring injuries, 2017 could be the first time that the Mets unleash an intact rotation upon the baseball world.

2017 Prediction: 2nd NL East

 

maikel-franco

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies

2016 Record: 71-91  • 4th NL East

O/U on Wins: 72.5 • Over

Moving In: OF Michael Saunders • 2B Howie Kendrick • P Joaquin Benoit • P Clay Buchholz • C Ryan Hanigan • P Pat Neshek • OF Andres Blanco • OF Daniel Nava

Moving Out: P Charlie Morton • 1B/OF Darin Ruf • P Matt Harrison • 1B Ryan Howard • C AJ Ellis • OF Peter Bourjos • OF Cody Asche • P David Hernandez

Key Player(s) in 2017: 3B Maikel Franco. The 24 year old Franco had a respectable first full season in the MLB during the 2016 season. In 581 AB, Franco slashed a line of .255/.733/25/88 and had a WAR of 1.2. The Phillies are in the middle of a full rebuild and, despite being 24, Franco will be viewed as a leader. The Phillies 3B could take a big step dorward in his development if he would take a bit better of an approach at the plate and not necessarily swing for the fences every AB. The Phillies shouldn’t be in a position to make much noise this season but a big season from Franco could result in him being the Phillies representative at the All Star Game.

Potential Breakout: P Vince Velasquez. The centerpiece of the trade that sent closer Ken Giles to Houston, Velasquez made 24 starts in his first full MLB season. In 131 innings, Velasquez went 8-6/4.12/1.33/152 and had a WAR of 1.7. The highlight of Velasquez’s season was his 16 strikeout performance at home against the Padres. Velasquez has the mentality and stuff to become a future ace for the Phillies but he will need to work on his secondary offerings in order to become a more complete pitcher. It is no secret that Velasquez can throw his fastball through a door but his secondary pitches do leave something to desire. It could be the reason that he has had such a hard time getting out of the 6th inning. That would be the 3rd time through the lineup and teams would have had a good look at his stuff. Most talk around Velazquez this spring has been about him working on his curveball. Another bonus could be the reported mentor/protege relationship that appears to be budding between him and the newly acquired, Clay Buchholz. If Velasquez wants to work on his curve, there are few beter teachers out there than Clay and his uncle Charlie.

Top Prospect: SS JP Crawford • Age: 22 • MLB ETA: 2017

First Round Draft Miss: P Joe Savery (19th) over P Rick Porcello (27th) in 2007

Fantasy Stud: 3B Maikel Franco • 2016 Stats: .255/.733/25/88/1.2 WAR in 581 AB

Money’s Man Crush: Young starting trio of Nola, Velasquez and Eichoff. While the Phillies do have some young, exciting positional players coming up the prospect pipeline (SS JP Crawford, OF Mickey Moniak, C Jorge Alfaro), it will be the development and progress of these three arms that dictates how soon the Phillies move from rebuild to postseason goals.

2017 Prediction: 5th NL East

 

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals

 

Washington Nationals

2016 Record: 95-67 • 1st NL East

O/U on Wins: 90.5 • Over

Moving In: OF Adam Eaton • C Derek Norris • C Matt Wieters • 1B Adam Lind • P Joe Blanton

Moving Out: P Mark Melancon • C Wilson Ramos • 2B Danny Espinosa • OF Ben Revere • IF Stephen Drew • P Mark Rzepcynski • P Lucas Giolito • P Reynaldo Lopez

Key Player(s) in 2017: OF Bryce Harper. This is a no brainer. Not only is Harper (Arguably) the best player on the team and biggest offensive threat, but he also has something to prove this year. Harper went from MVP in 2015 to a barely positive WAR player in 2016. In his MVP year, Harper put up an ungodly stat line of .330/1.109/42/99 and was a 9.9 WAR. Last season, he went .243/.814/24/86 with a 1.6 WAR. The only real positive was that he managed to set a new career high with 21 SB. Even though the Nats still managed to win the NL East and make it into the playoffs despite Harper’s woes, they will need him to play like his MVP self if they stand a legitimate chance of making it to the World Series. Harper, who is set to be a free agent in 2018, will also want to rebound to ensure he gets his $500 mil contract. (throws up)

Potential Breakout: SS/CF Trea Turner. The SS turned CF was nothing short of spectacular after his call up post All Star Break in 2016. Turner played in 73 games and produced a stat line of .342/.937/13/40/33 SB/3.5 WAR in only 307 AB. What makes it more impressive is that he did so while playing CF for the first time in his career. Turner should be one of the brighter spots on a Nationals team that is teeming with talent. With the arrival of Adam Eaton and a vacancy at SS, Turner should slide back into his natural position with relatively no issues. If everything aligns and he picks up where he left off, Dr. Trea or All Day Trea, as he is known in these parts, should be one of the bigger breakouts of 2017.

Top Prospect: OF Victor Robles • Age: 19 • MLB ETA: 2018

First Round Draft Miss: OF Chris Marrero (15th) over P Ian Kennedy (21st) in 2006.

Fantasy Stud: P Max Scherzer • 2016 Stats: 20/2.96/.97/284/6.3 WAR in 229 IP

Money’s Man Crush: All day Trea. An easy candidate for 20/20 seasons for the foreseeable future. Plays an above average to good CF despite not being an OF but his true worth to the Nats is as a starting SS.

2017 Prediction: 1st NL East

– $

2016 MLB Regular Season Predictions – National League

2016-opening-day

 

National League East

 

freeman

 

Atlanta Braves

2015 Record: 67-95 (4th NL East)

O/U Wins in 2016: 66.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Freddie Freeman • 1B

Potential Breakout Player: Ender Inciarte • OF

Futures Report: Dansby Swanson • SS

2016 Final Standing: 5th NL East

 

stanton

 

Miami Marlins

2015 Record: 71-91 (3rd NL East)

O/U Wins in 2016: 80 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Jose Fernandez • SP

Potential Breakout Player: Adam Conley.• SP

Futures Report: Tyler Kolek • RHP

2016 Final Standing: 3rd NL East

 

mets

 

New York Mets

2015 Record: 90-72 • (1st NL East)

O/U Wins in 2016: Wins 90.5 • Over

X-Factor: David Wright • 3B

Potential Breakout Player: Steven Matz • SP

Futures Report: Steven Matz • LHP

2016 Final Standing: 1st NL East

 

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

 

Philadelphia Phillies

2015 Record: 63-99 • (5th NL East)

O/U Wins in 2016: 67 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Maikel Franco • 3B

Potential Breakout Player: Vincent Velasquez • SP

Futures Report: JP Crawford • SS

2016 Final Standing: 4th NL East

 

Bryce Harper

Washington Nationals

2015 Record: 83-79 • (2nd NL East)

O/U Wins in 2016: 89.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Stephen Strasburg • SP

Potential Breakout Player: Joe Ross • SP

Futures Report: Lucas Giolito • RHP

2016 Final Standing: 2nd NL East

 

National League Central

 

Kris Bryant

 

Chicago Cubs

2015 Record: 97-65 • (3rd NL Central)

O/U Wins in 2016: 93.5 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Kyle Schwarber • C/OF

Potential Breakout Player: Addison Russell • SS

Futures Report: Greyber Torres • SS

2016 Final Standing: 1st NL Central

 

reds

 

Cincinnati Reds

2015 Record: 64-98 • (5th NL Central)

O/U Wins in 2016: 68.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Devin Mesoroco • C

Potential Breakout Player: Raisel Iglesias • SP

Futures Report: Jesse Winkler • OF

2016 Final Standing: 4th NL Central

 

MLB: JUL 26 Brewers at Diamondbacks

 

Milwaukee Brewers

2015 Record: 68-94 • (4th NL Central)

O/U Wins in 2016: 69.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Ryan Braun • OF

Potential Breakout Player: Domingo Santana • OF

Futures Report: Orlando Arcia • SS

2016 Final Standing: 5th NL Central

 

pirates

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

2015 Record: 98-64 • (2nd NL Central)

O/U Wins in 2016: 85.5 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Andrew McCutchen • OF

Potential Breakout Player: Gregory Polanco • OF

Futures Report: Tyler Glasnow • RHP

2016 Final Standing: 2nd NL Central

 

MLB: MAY 02 Pirates at Cardinals

 

St. Louis Cardinals

2015 Record: 100-62 • (1st NL Central)

O/U Wins in 2016: 86 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Michael Wacha • SP

Potential Breakout Player: Stephen Piscotty • OF

Futures Report: Alex Reyes • RHP

2016 Final Standing: 3rd NL Central

 

National League West

 

PaulGoldschmidt_2014_4

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

2015 Record: 79-83 • (3rd NL West)

O/U Wins in 2016: 82.5 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Paul Goldschmidt • 1B

Potential Breakout Player: Socrates Brito • OF

Futures Report: Braeden Shipley • RHP

2016 Final Standing: 2nd NL West

 

Colorado-Rockies

 

Colorado Rockies

2015 Record: 74-88 • (5th NL West)

O/U Wins in 2016: 70.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Carlos Gonzalez • OF

Potential Breakout Player: Trevor Story • SS

Futures Report: Brendan Rogers • SS

2016 Final Standing: 5th NL West

 

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

2015 Record: 92-70 • (1st NL West)

O/U Wins in 2016: 90 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Yasiel Puig • OF

Potential Breakout Player: Corey Seager • SS

Futures Report: Julio Urias • SP

2016 Final Standing: 1st NL West

 

San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres

 

San Diego Padres

2015 Record: 74-88 • (4th NL West)

O/U Wins in 2016: 72 Wins • Over

X-Factor: Andrew Cashner • SP

Potential Breakout Player: Drew Pomeranz • SP

Futures Report: Manny Margot • OF

2016 Final Standing: 4th NL West

 

MLB: World Series-Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants

 

San Francisco Giants

2015 Record: 84-78 • (2nd NL West)

O/U Wins in 2016: 88.5 Wins • Under

X-Factor: Buster Posey • C

Potential Breakout Player: Joe Panik • 2B

Futures Report: Christian Arroyo • SS

2016 Final Standing: 3rd NL West

 

Awards

National League MVP

  1. Andrew McCutchen • OF • Pittsburgh Pirates
  2. Paul Goldschmidt • 1B • Arizona Diamondbacks
  3. Nolan Arenado • 3B • Colorado Rockies

National League Cy Young

  1. Jose Fernandez • RHP • Miami Marlins
  2. Clayton Kershaw • LHP • Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Gerrit Cole • RHP • Pittsburgh Pirates

National League Rookie of the Year

  1. Corey Seager • SS • Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Steven Matz • LHP • New York Mets
  3. Trea Turner • SS • Washington Nationals

 

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Spare Change – Pretenders and Contenders – All Star Game Reflections

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Distinguishing the Pretenders from the Contenders:

Heading into today, the Yankees, Royals and Angels all sit atop their respective decisions. Meanwhile, the two AL Wild Card spots are being held by the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins. The two (surprise) teams have a 3 game lead over their closest threat (Toronto Blue Jays) and both are in dire need of reinforcements.

In the National League (to no one’s real surprise), the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers lead their respective divisions, with the Pirates and Cubs holding the two Wild Card positions. As it stands right now, the Pirates have a 3.5 game cushion on the Cubs, with the Giants (1 GB) and the Mets (2 GB) being the only real threat to the Cubs.

Despite all of, if not most of these teams currently sitting in, or near a playoff position, many of them still have glaring holes to fill and needs to address before it can be determined which teams are legit contenders, and which teams are just pretending.

Pretenders with NO CHANCE:

miggy

Detroit Tigers

Current Record: 46-47 (4 GB in Wild Card and 10.5 GB in the AL Central)

Biggest Need(s): Starting pitching and bullpen help.

Reason(s) They’re a Pretender:
• Justin Verlander looks completely lost on the mound.
• Outside of David Price, the entire starting pitching staff has been woeful and far from consistent.
• The Tigers pitching staff currently ranks in or near the bottom 5 in most major pitching statistics.
• Seem to be more in a position to sell off assets than to add them.
• Soon to be free agent players like David Price and Yoenis Cespedes could fetch a sizeable reward and help the Tigers in the near future.
• Depleted farm system might not be deep enough to make any trades of importance.

Bartolo Witness

New York Mets

Current Record: 49-46 (2 GB in Wild Card and 3 GB in the NL East)

Biggest Need(s): Offense.

Reason(s) They’re a Pretender:
• Sure they have a solid pitching rotation, but the Mets have one of the more inconsistent offenses in all of MLB. They currently rank in the bottom 10 in almost all of the major offensive categories.
• Injuries and durability concerns to key contributors like David Wright, Michael Cuddyer, David Murphy and Travis d`Arnaud.
• Despite being loaded with young pitching talent, the Mets management seems to be unwilling to move key pieces of the future for offensive help today.
• Could be more tempted to spend money on offense in the offseason than to move prospects at the trade deadline.

maddy bumgarner

San Francisco Giants

Current Record: 50-44 (1 GB in Wild Card and 2.5 GB in the NL West)

Biggest Need(s): Outfield offense and pitching help.

Reason(s) They’re a Pretender:

• Matt Cain hasn’t been Matt Cain for a while
• Tim Lincecum has become even more of a shell of himself and was recently diagnosed with a degenerative hip disorder
• The veteran trio of Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong, have performed more like washed up vets than crafty one.
• In the outfield, Nori Aoki and Angel Pagan have been pedestrian at best and have struggled to contribute consistent run production.
• It’s not an even numbered year…
• Not possessing the deepest of farm systems, the Giants may be hesitant to further deplete a system that is in the middle of a rebuild.
• More likely to attempt to add a big named starter in the offseason. Recent rumours have them linked to pursue Zack Greinke if and when he hits the open market.

Honourable Mention: Tampa Bay Rays.

Pretenders with SOME chance:

donno

Toronto Blue Jays

Current Record: 48-47 (3 GB in AL Wild Card and 4.5 GB in the AL East)

Biggest Need(s): Pitching, pitching, pitching and even MORE pitching.

Reason(s) They Still Have a Chance:

• Their ridiculous offense. The big bad bats of the Blue Jays currently sit atop or in the top 5 in nearly every MLB offensive category.
• No seriously… the offense, nothing else.

Reason They Will Remain A Pretender:

• Despite having one of the deeper farm systems in the majors, one that could (easily) be dipped into it in order to make a move or two, and an apparent $10 million in payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays front office seems unwilling to mortgage the future for a chance today.
• Even though he hasn’t been shy to make a move in the past, GM Alex Anthopolous seems to be a bit hesitant when it comes to moving top prospects, especially after being burned in the Dickey trade.
• If they don’t make a trade to help their poor pitching staff, the Blue Jays will definitely be adding another year to their playoff drought; 22 and counting.

bux

Minnesota Twins

Current Record: 50-43 (Leader in AL Wild Card and 6.5 GB in the AL Central)

Biggest Need(s): Offensive and pitching depth.

Reason(s) They Still Have a Chance:

• Received fairly consistent production from a somewhat unheralded or “no name” offense.
• Pitching staff has been above average to good and the return of Ervin Santana from suspension gives the Twins some pitching depth without having to make a big move.
• Similar to the Royals in 2014, the inexperience of the Twins helps them to shrug off stressful situations. It has been a big factor in their “never give up” attitude.

Reason They Will Remain A Pretender:

• They don’t have the payroll flexibility of big market teams to take on additional payroll.
• May be unwilling to dip into their deep farm system in order to make a run at it this season.
• Inexperience could work against them as the season progresses.

kris bryant

Chicago Cubs

Current Record: 51-43 (Leader in NL Wild Card and 9 GB in the NL Central)

Biggest Need(s): Starting pitching and bullpen help.

Reason(s) They Still Have a Chance:

• Joe Maddon’s supply of fairy dust that he brought with him from his tenure in Tampa Bay.
• Currently possess one of the best statistical pitching staffs in MLB.
• Depth of farm system and a management team that is hungry to win and willing to spend to do so, could see the Cubs be one of the more active teams at the trade deadline; and not as a seller for once.
• Similar to the Royals in 2014, the inexperience of the Cubs could be a blessing in disguise for the Cubs and could help them shrug off stressful situations down the stretch.

Reason They Will Remain A Pretender:

• Asking price on trade targets could be more than Theo Epstein and crew are willing to spend. Sure the Cubs are looking good this season, but don’t think that they will mortgage their very bright future for a chance this season.
• Could be more willing to take on payroll and spend money in the offseason, especially with a deep pool of free agent pitching help.
• Youthful Cubs could succumb to the grind of a 162 game season and start to break down as the season goes on.

Honurable Mention: Baltimore Orioles

Contenders with BIG Needs:

arod pouty

New York Yankees

Record: 51-41 (1st AL East) • 4.5 game lead.

Biggest Need(s):

• Regression of C.C Sabathia and the durability concerns of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova, could see the Bronx Bombers pursue a starting pitcher or two.
• Could also look to add infield and outfield depth to take load off of aging roster.

Most Likely Outcome:

• GM Brian Cashman was quoted as saying that he predicts that the Yankees were “more likely not doing anything than something significant.” He then followed that up by saying that they were “still making their calls” though.
• My take away from this is that the Yankees aren’t necessarily looking for the big name addition, but could look to add depth to the back end of their rotation like they did last season when they added Brandon McCarthy.
• Even with their respectable division lead, the Yankees will need to make a move in order to firmly solidify their grasp on the AL East.

Division Series - Kansas City Royals v Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Game Two

Kansas City Royals

Record: 56-36 (1st AL Central) • 6.5 game lead.

Biggest Need(s):

• The season long struggles of Yordano Ventura and the recent news that Jason Vargas needs Tommy John surgery will have the Royals tied to every big name pitcher available leading up to the trade deadline.
• With the injury to Alex Gordon and the durability concerns that are Alex Rios and Kendrys Morales, don’t be surprised to see the Royals also look to add some outfield depth or some bench help.

Most Likely Outcome:

• I would honestly be shocked to see the Royals not make a move of significance to bolster their starting rotation. They have enough top prospects and a deep enough farm system to add one, if not two, starting pitchers.

Correaa

Houston Astros

Record: 52-43 (AL Wild Card leader and 2nd AL West)

Biggest Need(s):

• With rookie phenom, Lance McCullers Jr., facing an innings limit and the back end of the rotation being suspect at best, the Astros could and will be in the market to add an impactful starter.
• George Springer’s injury could mean that the Astros will also be on the hunt for some outfield help or depth. This isn’t a top priority, but it could be something that is addressed nonetheless.
• It wouldn’t be surprising for them to look for some 1B help, especially with Chris Carter currently hitting under .200.

Most Likely Outcome:

• Rumours have already started to swirl in regards to the Astros being tied to the big names available on the trade market. This week alone they have been linked to the trio of Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels and David Price.
• No guarantees that the Astros land one of the big name pitchers available, but they may look to add an arm or two of lesser status.

Joc Pederson

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 54-42 (1st NL West) • 2.5 game lead.

Biggest Need(s):

• The injury to Brett Anderson earlier in the week was just the latest blow to an already paper thin Dodgers rotation. Outside of the dynamic duo of Kershaw and Greinke, the Dodgers had also been leaning heavily on Anderson and Mike Bolsinger to fill the void left by Hyun Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, who both suffered season ending injuries.

Most Likely Outcome:

• The severity of Anderson’s injury will really dictate just how active the Dodgers are leading up to the deadline. That being said, even if the injury isn’t severe, you can bet that the Dodgers will be looking to add some starting pitching depth. This week alone the have been linked to actively pursuing Cole Hamels.

Honourable Mention: Pittsburgh Pirates

Contenders with Minimal Needs:

• Los Angeles Angels
• Washington Nationals
• St. Louis Cardinals

all-star-game-baseball-ca8da7757f9d04a5

Reflections on the Dinger Derby and Mid Summer Classic:

• Introduction of the new format helped revitalize the Home Run Derby, not only from a timing standpoint, but also helped add some much needed life into something that had become stagnant in the past couple seasons.
• A combination of seasoned veterans (Pujols and Fielder), up and coming stars (Rizzo and Donaldson), the 23 and under stud club (Pederson, Bryant and Machado) and the home town favourite (Todd Frazier), easily made fans forget about the “big” names (Trout, Harper and Stanton) not in attendance.
• Even if you’re not a Reds fan, hearing the Cincinnati crowd basically will Frazier to the finals and the Derby title, was one of the best moments in recent All Star game memory.
• This interaction between Albert Pujols and Joc Pederson’s brother, Champ. Moments like this are really what the game is all about.

• The “Franchise Four” announcements prior to the All Star game fun to hear, especially with teams like the Rays naming 4 players who are not only still playing, but also 2 that are no longer with the team.
• On the whole, there weren’t too many snubs or surprises in the balloting, although Marlins fans selecting Gio over Josh Beckett and DBacks fans naming Goldy over Steve Finley could be considered a bit of a shock. I’m also a tad surprised that Mets fans went with Piazza over the Kid, Gary Carter.
• No matter what your thoughts or opinions are about him, you have to admit that it was hard not to get goose bumps when Pete Rose was announced to the Cincinnati crowd.
• The naming of the four “Greatest Living Players” (Sandy Koufax, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Johnny Bench) was an emotional moment that is up there with Ted Williams being carted out for the 1999 All Star Game at Fenway.
• Sandy Koufax showing us, and 50 cent, how to properly throw out a first pitch:

• Mike Trout doing Mike Trout things. With the leadoff home run, Trout became the first batter since the legendary Bo Jackson to lead the game off with a ding dong. Not to mention that it helped to complete his career All Star Game cycle. Keep in mind that this was only his 4th All Star appearance.
• Very fitting that Trout would become the first player since Bo to leadoff the game with a home run, especially with his AL All Star teammate, Adam Jones, referring to him as the “white” Bo Jackson.
• It would be amusing to see what Trout could do on the gridiron seeing as he could play either offense (fullback) or defense (safety).
• Jacob deGrom needed just 10 pitches and his 98 mph fastball to strike out the AL side in the 6th inning. In doing so, deGrom joined 19yr old Doc Gooden as the only Mets pitcher to strike out the side in the All Star game.

Over Looked Season of Yesteryear:

1996: Ellis Burks • Colorado Rockies • 3rd NL MVP

156 G • 613 AB • 142 R • 211 H • 40 HR • 128 RBI • 32 SB • .344 BA • 1.047 OPS

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