Hot Stove, Hot Takes – Part Two

 

free agents

 

Having already hypothesized where the top tier position players would sign, we now turn our attention to making half-assed guesses… I mean, educated assertions to where the top Starters available will wind up.

 

corbin

Patrick Corbin

Position: LHP Age: 29

2018 Stats: 33 GS • 200.0 IP • 3.15. ERA • 2.61 xFIP • 1.05 WHIP • 11.07 K/9 • 2.16 BB/9 • 6.3 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. It’s no secret that the Phillies plan on throwing some serious cash around. It’s also no secret that they plan on upgrading their starting rotation. They have already been linked to the big names (Paxton, Kluber, and Carrasco) available on the trade market, but by signing one of the premier free agent arms instead, they could choose to trade their top prospects to fill other areas of need. With the likes of 2018 Cy Young nominee, Aaron Nola, and 2015 Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta, already in the fold, the Phillies wouldn’t need Corbin to be their figurative ace; a role he is better suited for. The trio of Nola, Corbin, and Arrieta immediately give the Phillies one of, if not the best, front end of the rotations in all of the MLB. Something that will come in handy when the calendar turns to October.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Yankees. Entering the offseason, the Yankees had one clear goal in mind: upgrading their starting rotation. Despite having already traded for LHP James Paxton, it should come as no surprise that the Yankees, Corbin’s childhood favourite team, have already been rumoured to be the front-runners to garner his services as well. Similar to the Phillies situation mentioned above, the Yankees don’t need Corbin to be their proverbial “ace.” However, seeing as how the starting point for a contract with him should be along the lines of the contract that Yu Darvish signed prior to last season – 6yrs/$126mil – the Yankees will be paying an ace price for a guy who is really more of a solid number two. With that being said, the Yankees, who seem to want to move on from the Sonny Gray experience, are still going to be in need of adding an arm to fill out their rotation. Why settle for starting the season with an unproven arm like Chance Adams or Jonathan Loaisiga as your number five, when you could sign Corbin, and enter the season with 38yr old, CC Sabathia, to anchor your rotation instead?

Term: 6yrs/$131mil

 

 

eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi

Position: RHP Age: 28

2018 Stats: 21 GS • 111.0 IP • 3.81 ERA • 3.67 xFIP • 1.13 WHIP • 8.19 K/9 • 1.62 BB/9 • 2.2 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Houston Astros. The Astros were already looking at having to possibly replace two starting pitchers as both, LHP Dallas Keuchel and RHP Charlie Morton, were slated to hit free agency. Then they got the news that another one of their starters, RHP Lance McCullers Jr., was going to miss the entire 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. Even though the Astros do have a few arms – RHP Brad Peacock, RHP Colin McHugh, RHP Josh James, and RHP Forrest Whitley – that could step into the rotation to begin the season, adding an impact veteran arm like Eovaldi would allow them to bring along their younger arms (James and Whitley) at a more suitable pace; as well as having a contingency plan if either of the veteran arms of Peacock or McHugh don’t pan out.

Who Will Sign Him: Boston Red Sox. Acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline, Eovaldi’s solid regular season performance was overshadowed by his now legendary one in October. Eovaldi pitched 22.1 innings over six games in the Playoffs including two starts, and a relief appearance for the ages. You could argue that he was the odds on favourite to be the World Series MVP until Steve Pearce did his best Reggie Jackson impression. Post season success aside, what makes a reunion with Eovaldi truly appealing to the Red Sox is that he gives them another right handed option – along with Rick Porcello – to offset their lefty heavy rotation. With few holes to fill this offseason, I expect the Red Sox to be more than willing to spend in order to upgrade both their rotation and bullpen.

Term: 5yrs/$75mil

 

Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel

Position: LHP Age: 30

2018 Stats: 34 GS • 204.2 IP • 3.74 ERA • 3.84 xFIP • 1.31 WHIP • 6.73 K/9 • 2.55 BB/9 • 3.6 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Cincinnati Reds. Despite being perennial cellar dwellers for the past number of seasons, the Reds have been one of the more talked about teams as far as trading for or signing a top tier starting pitcher. Rumoured to have inquired about the Blue Jays young righty, Marcus Stroman, it appears that the Reds are targeting pitchers capable of inducing a high rate of ground balls; which isn’t surprising when you consider that they play in a hitter friendly ballpark (Great American Ballpark). By targeting a free agent like Keuchel, it allows the Reds to refrain from having to part with some of their highly touted prospects; which in turn lets Cincinnati use them as trade bait for other needs. Speculation and rumours aside, one thought to keep in mind is that the Reds have historically shied away from offering lucrative contracts to high profile free agents.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. Similar to the position the Yankees are in, the Phillies would like to add another arm but don’t need them to be their ace. Enter Keuchel. Despite his lack of velocity and low strikeout numbers, his pinpoint control, and ability to keep the ball in the yard due to a high ground ball%, make him a logical fit for a team that plays their home games in a sin bin like Citizens Bank. That being said, with Keuchel on the wish list of numerous other teams, the Phillies might not want to get in a bidding war for the services of Keuchel, and instead could look to acquire a top tier pitcher via trade.

Term: 4yrs/$80mil

 

happ

J.A Happ

Position: LHP Age: 36

2018 Stats: 31 GS • 177.2 IP • 3.65 ERA • 3.88 xFIP • 1.13 WHIP • 9.78 K/9 • 2.58 BB/9 • 3.2 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Toronto Blue Jays. This one is fairly straight forward; the Blue Jays need to add a veteran arm or two to help ease the workload on their young, and oft-injured starters. Having already had two stints North of the border in his career, Happ is no stranger to the organization, and that’s with taking into account the new coaching regime that is in place; although long time Pitching Coach, Pete Walker, does remain. Although a reunion between the two would make sense, at least on paper, for both parties, Happ’s potential price tag, and desire to win now, could be the reason that this doesn’t pan out.

Who Will Sign Him: Los Angeles Angels. As stated in the previous article, the Angels should be doing everything in their power to surround Mike Trout with as much talent as possible. Seeing as how their biggest need, which there are numerous, is the starting rotation, targeting one or two of the top arms available should be priority number one for this offseason. Although there are “better” arms and “bigger” names available, the 36 yr old Happ might offer the best bang for the buck on the market. Since his resurgence with the Pirates in 2015, Happ has quietly been one of the more consistent starters during that time. The market for Happ should begin to heat up once the bigger names have signed, as the teams that missed out on their top targets begin to look at their Plan B’s. The Angels would be smart to not play the waiting game or they may risk getting in a bidding war and having to overpay.

Term: 2yrs/$32mil

 

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Charlie Morton

Position: RHP Age: 35

2018 Stats: 30 GS •167.0 IP • 3.13 ERA • 3.42 xFIP • 1.16 WHIP • 10.83 K/9 • 3.45 BB/9 • 3.1 WAR

Who Should Sign Him: Oakland A’s.

Who Will Sign Him: Washington Nationals. Despite looking like they were about to jump start a rebuild at last season’s Trade Deadline, not to mention potentially losing Bryce Harper any day now, the Nationals enter the offseason rumoured to be looking to add pieces. It’s hard to argue against the Nationals still believing that they have a window to contend as they still have a pretty stacked rotation and roster, but it is hard to see them shelling out big bucks for long term deals because a rebuild could take place at a moments notice. Morton, despite being 35, has been one of the top starters for the past few seasons in regards to strikeout numbers (364 K’s in 313.2 innings over the past two seasons) and average fastball velocity (95.4mph). Signing Morton would give the Nationals a solid mid rotation starter to pitch behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, while not having to commit to a lucrative multi-year deal. It also allows the Nationals, if they plan on contending, to spend money elsewhere on other needs, as well as give them a potential trade piece if they are forced to sell off.

Term: 2yrs/$28mil

 

Best of the Rest:

Lance Lynn • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 2.9 • Tampa Bay Rays

Anibal Sanchez • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 2.4 • San Diego Padres

Gio Gonzalez • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Oakland A’s

Trevor Cahill • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Toronto Blue Jays

Derek Holland • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 2.0 • Texas Rangers

Clay Buchholz • Age: 34 • 2018 WAR: 1.9 • Arizona Diamondbacks

Wade Miley • Age: 32 • WAR: 1.5 • Milwaukee Brewers

Matt Harvey • Age 30 • 2018 WAR: 1.4 • Cincinnati Reds

Jeremy Hellickson • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.2 • Chicago White Sox

Garrett Richards • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.0 • Baltimore Orioles

Tyson Ross • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR: 1.0 • Cincinnati Reds

 

Will Remain Unsigned Until Spring Training:

 

Brett Anderson • Age 31 • 2018 WAR: 0.9

James Shields • Age: 37 • 2018 WAR: 0.8

Jason Hammel • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR 0.8

Edwin Jackson • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.7

Marco Estrada • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.5

Francisco Liriano • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.3

Doug Fister • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: 0.3

Bartolo Colon • Age: 46 • 2018 WAR: 0.2

Yovani Gallardo • Age: 33 • 2018 WAR: 0.1

Jaime Garcia • Age: 32 • 2018 WAR:0.0

Martin Perez • Age: 28 • 2018 WAR: -0.2

Drew Pomeranz • Age: 30 • 2018 WAR: -0.3

Miguel Gonzalez • Age: 35 • 2018 WAR: -0.3

Chris Tillman • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: -0.4

Ervin Santana • Age: 36 • 2018 WAR: -0.5

Nate Karns • Age: 31 • 2018 WAR: N/A

 

Part Three – Top Free Agent Relief Pitchers Available – Coming Soon

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Hot Stove, Hot Takes – Part One

free agents

With America set to sit down around the table, and give thanks for all they hold near and dear, the rest of the world eagerly anticipates a trifecta of NFL games and taking advantage of Black Friday deals. For me though, what I look forward to is not the obligatory airing of “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles,” although, I am a sucker for a John Candy film or the 75% off of a 70″ flat screen, but rather the ramping up of the MLB offseason. Known to those who speak baseball as the “hot stove,” the MLB offseason is a whirlwind ride of rumours, rumblings and constant refreshing of the Twittersphere, that leaves fans of every club eager to find out who their team is “in on.”

Even though the MLB’s GM Winter Meetings, the “unofficial” start of Hot Stove season, aren’t set to take place for another few weeks in Las Vegas, the Stove is already beginning to show signs of warming up. So far, outside of various signings to fill minor league rosters, we have seen a few free agents ink new deals, most notably being World Series MVP, Steve Pearce re-signing in Boston, and veteran backstop, Kurt Suzuki, finding a new home in Atlanta for the next two years. The trade market has also begun to heat up with the Yankees taking advantage of a sell off in Seattle and landing one of the bigger names available on the market, LHP James Paxton, although the price to pay was a steep one with Seattle receiving a package of prospects headlined by New York’s number one, LHP Justus Sheffield. This wasn’t the first, nor will it be the last trade of note to come out of the Pacific Northwest, as Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto, a favourite of the Hot Stove Hounds, has also recently swapped starting catcher, Mike Zunino and OF Guillermo Heredia with the Rays, for former Mariner great and notorious base thief, Mallex Smith. But enough about what HAS happened, let’s now look ahead to what COULD happen.

Free Agent Predictions

This offseason is shaping up to be one of if not the biggest and most exciting in MLB history with two of the games biggest stars (OF Bryce Harper and SS/3B Manny Machado) both hitting the open market, not to mention a former MVP (3B Josh Donaldson), a former Cy Young recipient (LHP Dallas Kuechel) and a closer with over 300 saves (RHP Craig Kimbrel) also available to the highest bidder. Why don’t we begin with some predictions on where the above, as well as some of the other “big names,” will wind up….

Top Position Players Available

machado

Manny Machado

Position: SS/3B • Age: 26

2018 Stats: 709 PA • .297 BA • .367 OBP • .905 OPS • 37 HR • 107 RBI • 5.7 WAR • 141 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Los Angeles Angels. My thinking here is that the Angels front office should want to bring in some much needed help and support for current front-runner to the claim of GOAT, Mike Trout. The main deterrent here will not be a financial one, but a logistical one. Mr. Machado, though a borderline elite defender at the hot corner, now fancies himself a SS, the position he was drafted as and played at last season. The problem here is not only is Manny a surprisingly sub-par defender at short, but his position of choice is currently filled by the best in the game, Mr. Andrelton Simmons. Imagine though, for a second, if Machado decided to go back to 3B. Just imagine how filthy defensively that left side of the infield would be.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. As much gossip and chatter as the rumour mill churns out during Hot Stove season, what still tends to happen is along the lines of the age old cliche: “where there is smoke, there is fire.” Meaning that, if you hear that so and so is linked to a team, and you read that they’re linked to a team, it most likely means that they’ll wind up with said team. Last week, Phillies owner John Middleton told USA TODAY Sports “We’re going into this expecting to spend money, and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.” It’s hard not to read between the lines on that statement. The Phillies will be linked to, and most likely wind up signing two or three of the marquee free agents available. With the lack of development from former first round pick, SS JP Crawford, and the inconsistency of 3B Maikel Franco, you can bet that Machado will be the top name on the Phillies wish list. Although, you have to wonder how much the blue collared fans in Philadelphia will appreciate the hustle and antics of Machado.

Term: 10yrs/$350 million

Harper

Bryce Harper

Position: OF Age: 26

2018 Stats: 695 PA • .249 BA • .393 OBP • .889 OPS • 34 HR • 100 RBI • 3.5 WAR • 135 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: New York Mets. Realistically, any team in need of or desiring an impact, middle of the order type bat, and can afford to shell out the biggest free agent contract to date, should be interested. But, given their inability to consistently produce offensively and their willingness to pursue top tier talent, it would be hard not to see the Mets make sense as a suitor for Harper. Not only would Harper immediately become the face of the franchise that just lost their heart and soul with the retirement of David Wright, but he would also get to play in the biggest baseball market there is; even if that means his home games are in Queens and not the Bronx.

Who Will Sign Him: Philadelphia Phillies. As mentioned above in regards to Manny Machado, the Phillies ownership has already outright said that they are going to spend “stupid” amounts of money this offseason. Which most likely means that Harper will be near, if not at, the top of their “wish list.” As ridiculous as it seems that a team could spend nearly a BILLION dollars on TWO players, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Phillies wind up with both Harper and Machado. One thing to keep in the back of your mind though is that New Jersey native and avid Philadelphia sports fan, Mike Trout, could potentially hit the open market in the next two years. Could the Philles hold off on signing Harper, and play the wait and see game with Trout?

Term: 15yrs/$450 million

Pollock-e1517933211574

A.J Pollock

Position: CF Age: 31

2018 Stats: 460 PA • .257 BA • .316 OBP • .800 OPS • 21 HR • 65 RBI • 2.5 WAR • 110 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: San Francisco Giants. The Giants will be an interesting team to keep an eye on during the course of Hot Stove season. Despite four lackluster seasons since their last World Series appearance and title, and strapped with an aging core of players, nobody really knows what to expect when it comes to San Fran. Newly hired, Farhan Zaidi, left the rival Dodgers to become the President of Baseball Operations for the Giants. What that means is that all decisions regarding trades and signings will go directly through him. What Zaidi decides to do as far as retooling the roster or rebuilding it from the ground up, will ultimately impact if the Giants are a viable option for Pollock. If they go the retool route then it’s hard to find a better and more realistic option than Pollock as he fits pretty much every need that the Giants have in the OF. However, if Zaidi decides to sell off his veterans and begin an overhaul of his roster, than a veteran OF (Michael Brantley, Adam Jones) that can be flipped at the deadline for a piece or two will be a more realistic signing.

Who Will Sign Him: Atlanta Braves. Though being one of the few “attractive” outfield options available on the free agent market, Pollock’s age and durability concerns – he hasn’t played more than 113 games since 2015 – will see him take a considerable backseat to the likes of Harper as far as term and value go. That being said, Pollock’s abilities with both his glove and bat make him the second best OF option available. With the Braves set to move on from RF Nick Markakis, and Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ender Inciarte already in place, the allure of adding a solid defensive fielder, as well as a top of the order bat, might make this a perfect fit for both club and player.

Term: 4yrs/$60mil

donno

Josh Donaldson

Position: 3B Age: 33

2018 Stats: 219 PA • .246 BA • . OBP • .889 OPS • 8 HR • 30 RBI • 1.3 WAR • 117 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Anaheim Angels. Maybe I am biased by my man crushes on both Donaldson AND Mike Trout, but my thinking here is once again influenced by the Angels need to surround Trout with some form of offensive help, or risk having him decide to take his talents elsewhere once his contract expires. Sure, the Angels may be weary about signing a former MVP who is over 30 (see: Pujols, Albert), but the glaring need they have for BOTH an everyday 3B, as well as an “impact bat” may be one that causes them to overlook their past misfortunes with former MVP’s over 30 (see: Hamilton, Josh). Couple that with Donaldson being linked to rumours of a one year deal in the $20 million range, and this may be too much of a bargain for the Angels to pass up.

Who Will Sign Him: St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been linked to the former AL MVP pretty much since the Blue Jays were eliminated by the Indians in the 2016 ALCS. Despite offering up the likes of RHP Jack Flaherty in exchange for Donaldson following the 2017 campaign, the Cardinals were rebuffed by the Blue Jays; a move that the latter would come to regret as Donaldson was sold for .10 on the dollar after missing the majority of the season in Toronto. Blue Jay bitterness aside, the Cardinals are now poised to finally wind up with their man, and it’ll come at no cost besides cash. Signing Donaldson would allow Matt Carpenter to slide back to 1B, where he is a better fit, and also allow the Cardinals to deal Jose Martinez, who’s all bat/no glove approach is better suited for an AL DH spot, for some help at other roster needs.

Term: 1yr/$20mil

moose

Mike Moustakas

Position: 3B Age: 30

2018 Stats: 635 PA • .251 BA • .315 OBP • .774 OPS • 28 HR • 95 RBI • 2.4 WAR • 105 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Kansas City Royals. After an October run to the NLCS with the Brewers, the man known as “Moose,” hits the market for the second time in as many years. Unlike last year, where rumours of a 5yr/$85mil deal were floated around before an eventual “freeze” in the Free Agent market saw numerous “big names” not sign until February, there seems to be a better understanding of how the market for Moose might shape up. Despite prodigal power at the plate, his low on-base numbers make him a less than attractive option for GM’s who value modern stats over the more traditional ones. Still, there will be a market for a player who can play an above average 3B, while offering 30/90 potential. I anticipate a team that is in the midst of a rebuild, and can look to flip him at the deadline, will be the one most likely to come to terms with the big 3B. Seeing as how one of the teams that fits this bill is the team that drafted him in the first place – the Royals – a reunion between the two might be the most natural of fits.

Who Will Sign Him: Pittsburgh Pirates. Even though they have already come to terms with SS/3B Jung-Ho Kang, the Pirates may look to roll with someone who hasn’t sat out the majority of the past two seasons. One of the other things that makes the Moose a fit in the Steel City is that he gives them a middle of the order bat that can make them challenge for the NL Central right away, or they can move him at the deadline to a contender if and when the Pirates are out of contention.

Term: 3yrs/$24mil.

Gonzalez

Marwin Gonzalez

Position: Utility Age: 29

2018 Stats: 552 PA • .247 BA • .324 OBP • .733 OPS • 16 HR • 68 RBI • 1.6 WAR • 104wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Colorado Rockies. It goes without saying that any team that realistically views themselves as more “Contender” than “Pretender” could benefit from the addition of a versatile player like the man known as “Swiss G.” Capable of playing all four infield positions as well as LF, Gonzalez could give the Rockies immediate value as a potential everyday replacement for LF Carlos Gonzalez or 2B D.J LeMehieu; not to mention as an option to give 3B Nolan Arenado and SS Trevor Story some needed days off.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Yankees. As mentioned above, Gonzalez will be most attractive for a team with aspirations of contending from day one. Who fits that mold better than the Bronx Bombers? The Yankees are already entering the season needing to replace SS Didi Gregorious, whom will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery, and the most logical fit for that role is 2B/SS Gleybar Torres, who was their everyday 2B last season. If Torres does indeed move over to SS, Gonzalez could slot in immediately as their Opening Day 2B. However, by adding someone with the versatility of Gonzalez, it could also see the Yankees play him occasionally at 1B or LF, and go and add one of the veteran 2B options available; such as: Daniel Murphy, Jed Lowrie, D.J LeMehieu, Brian Dozier or Jed Lowrie.

Term: 3yrs/$36mil

yasmani-grandal

Yasmani Grandal

Position: C Age: 30

2018 Stats: 518 PA • .241 BA • .349 OBP • .815 OPS • 24 HR • 68 RBI • 3.6 WAR • 125 wRC+

Who Should Sign Him: Houston Astros. The Astros have already decided to part ways with veteran, Brian McCann, and are set to head into the season with a tandem of Max Stassi and Chris Herremann. Though they have been one of the teams most linked with acquiring the Marlins, J.T Realmuto, in order to do so, the Astros would have to part with one or more of their top prospects. Even though they are an early favourite to head to the World Series, and a trade for Realmuto would easily put them over the top, the cost to do so might be one that is too high for GM Jeff Luhnow’s liking. Enter, Yasmani Grandal. Sure, his postseason play especially on the defensive side left A LOT to be desired, but there is no denying that his offensive prowess more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies. The switch-hitting, Grandal, would be an immediate upgrade over their current options, and would also allow them to keep their top prospects which they could use on their roster or to fill any other holes that may need filling.

Who Will Sign Him: New York Mets. There is no denying that Travis d’Arnaud is not an everyday MLB catcher. It is not because of his bat and offense, although that has dropped off significantly since 2015, but it is more to do with his inability to stay healthy. The soon to be 30 year old, has never played in more than 112 games at the MLB level, and at this point in his career, may be better suited as a back-up option. Outside of d’Arnaud, the Mets have Kevin Plawecki, but he too is starting to look more and more like a back-up. On the farm, the Mets have 24 year old, Tomas Nido, but his glove first approach and lack of bat might also make him a better back-up candidate at the MLB level. The Mets do have the pieces to pursue a catching option on the trade market like the Indians, Yan Gomes, or even possibly, J.T Realmuto, but the latter would cost them more than they are likely willing to part with. Signing one of the better free agents available -either Grandal or Wilson Ramos – could be the Mets best route to filling both a hole in their lineup, as well as adding a much needed offensive threat.

Term: 5yrs/$75mil

Part Two – Top Pitching Free Agents available – coming soon.

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